CO129-337 - Public Offices & Foreign Office - 1906 — Page 310

CO129 Colonial Office Hong Kong Records 理藩院香港檔案 All AI Reviewed

4

registered in Great Britain. My position, when appealed to, was a delicate one. If, at the instance of British subjects, I had protested to the Chinese Government and the provincial authorities against the boycotting of goods in which British subjects were interested, the result would probably have been the extension of the boycott to British goods also. Even to interfere on behalf of the cigarettes of purely British firms did not seem a politic step, for to say to the Chinese agitators that they must not prohibit the purchase of certain articles because they were not American, but British, was impossible, without implicitly recognizing the boycott of American goods as legitimate.

A similar question in which Chinese feeling was excited the year before last was that of the Convention for the emigration of indentured labourers to South Africa, in accordance with the conditions laid down in the Transvaal Labour Ordinance.

Writers in the English press in China strongly criticized these conditions, and they were backed up in their opinion by the arguments advanced in Parliament and in the English press, excerpts from which were translated into Chinese and forwarded to this country from Ceylon and Singapore. They found their way into the columns of the native press in North China, and created serious obstacles to the working of the Convention, besides exciting ill-will against Great Britain in the minds of ignorant people. The agitation has, however, died away, and at present no ill-feeling seems to exist on this subject, in consequence of the favourable reports spread by returned labourers, who brought with them considerable sums of money. I mention this matter to show how an anti-foreign feeling may result from a crusade carried on by well-meaning persons in foreign countries who regard it as their duty to advocate what seem to them to be the interests of the Chinese people.

Since 1900 the native newspaper press has developed to a very remarkable extent, and as there is at present no press law to control or restrict newspaper utterances, these are often of a most intemperate character. Not only foreign nations, but high Chinese officials, are attacked with violence, and a case occurred not long ago at Hankow, where a newspaper enjoying foreign protection (as is the case with many of these sheets) openly applauded the attempt made at the Peking Railway terminus to destroy the Government Reform Commission at the moment of starting on its foreign tour by means of a bomb.

In 1903 a prosecution was instituted at Shanghae against certain Chinese students for publishing seditious libels directed against the Imperial Family, the result of which was the condemnation of some of the accused to various terms of imprisonment. Such acts of repression are, however, exceedingly few, in comparison with the number of actionable publications.

The students in question had passed some time in Japan. At the present moment there are believed to be some 8,000 or 9,000 young Chinese residing in that country, some no doubt pursuing their studies industriously, but many of them, it is to be suspected, devoting their attention rather to political questions and acquiring ideas which, for the present at least, cannot be put in practice in China. They occupy themselves with projects of political reform, and, strange to say, from being submissive members of a society in which political freedom is scarcely known, develop into little better than anarchists. Such is the effect of putting the new wine of Western ideas into the old bottles which are only fitted to hold the social doctrines of Confucius and Mencius.

They also have had before their eyes the object-lesson of an Asiatic nation which has kept the construction of its railways and the working of its mines in its own hands, has been able to recover jurisdiction over the foreigners who dwell within its borders, and has risen to a height of military and naval power which is without a parallel in this part of the world. They see the fruits, but pay no heed to the long course of effort and study which have produced them, and fancy that in order to secure the same for China all that is necessary is to desire them ardently. Those who remain behind in Japan send telegrams to their Government urging them to withstand the foreigner, while those who return home ally themselves with the anti-dynastic agitators who are always more or less active in China. It is such as these whom the Central Government fears, but, through the strong personality of the present Viceroy of Chibli, is able to dominate. In the provinces, however, the local authorities seem quite unable to restrain them, and it is to the agitation of the so-called "recovery of China's rights" that the unreasoning provincial opposition to foreign railway and mining enterprise is to be ascribed. I term it "unreasoning" because it not only protests against any further concessions being granted, but seeks to set up an a priori right to cancel the engagements already entered into by the Chinese Government, or with its official sanction, on the mere ground that the particular province does not wish them to be carried out.

5

In spite of all this, I am reluctant to believe that this feeling is likely to develop into a widespread and active hostility against foreigners as such. The Central Government and the provincial authorities must, in my opinion, be acquitted of any desire to provoke hostilities with foreign Powers, and it is evident that they are ready to do what they can to avoid a conflict. Perhaps the Viceroy of Canton ought to be excepted from this favourable judgment. He is a headstrong personality, and we have had a good deal of trouble with him of late. But his high-handed treatment of leading members of the Chinese community has made him equally unpopular with his own countrymen. Of the other high provincial authorities the worst that can be said is that they are time-servers, lack moral courage, and, in the presence of a body of rioters, seem to lose their nerve.

The murder of American missionaries at Lien Chou in October last, the destruction of Spanish Catholic and English Presbyterian chapels in South Fukien early in February, the recent massacre of French and English missionaries at Nanchang, and the Shanghae riot of December last must be regarded as sporadic outbreaks owing their origin to local causes. There is no sign of any general conspiracy against foreign missions. Nevertheless, it is incumbent on the members of all missionary bodies to act prudently, to avoid all occasion of dispute with local authorities or "gentry," and above all to refrain from intervention on behalf of their converts, for, as I had occasion to observe in a recent telegram, China is full of combustible material, and the indiscreet action of a missionary, merchant, or foreign official may at any moment lead to a local tumult.

The question seems to be: Is the present obstructive attitude of the Chinese authorities towards European enterprise and the hostility of the Chinese people, indicated in the boycott of American goods, likely to develop into a general movement of active hostility against foreigners as such?

I think the reply must be that this will depend on a combination of various factors, and that it is proverbially dangerous to predict the future. As far, however, as the attitude of foreign Powers towards China is concerned, there seems at present to be no ground for apprehending any attacks upon her integrity and independence such as would unite the Court and the country in one wild effort to get rid of the foreigner. The situation therefore differs very materially from what existed early in 1900.

As far as the Powers are concerned, what is required is that they should exercise proper restraint over their own people, whether missionaries, merchants, travellers, or officials, and ensure that the Chinese people are always and in all matters treated with strict fairness and justice, while at the same time they maintain their Treaty rights and take due precautions for the protection of the foreign communities at the open ports. There may be perhaps some risk of the active members of the anti-Manchu party conceiving the idea of raising an anti-foreign cry in order to gain adherents, but such a cry must remain without effect as long as the Powers show their ability to protect the foreign communities by maintaining an adequate force of appropriate ships on the station; and in spite of the fact that the Manchus number only some 5,000,000 out of a total population that is probably not over-estimated at 300,000,000, I see no reason to believe in the success of a movement directed towards the overthrow of the present dynasty.

What is necessary is vigilance on all sides, on the part of the Central Government and on that of the Powers; prudence and patience on the part of the general foreign community; self-restraint on that of the foreign press.

I have, &c.

0

(Signed)

ERNEST SATOW.

304

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4 registered in Great Britain. My position, when appealed to, was a delicate one. If, at the instance of British subjects, I had protested to the Chinese Government and the provincial authorities against the boycotting of goods in which British subjects were interested, the result would probably have been the extension of the boycott to British goods also. Even to interfere on behalf of the cigarettes of purely British firms did not seem a politic step, for to say to the Chinese agitators that they must not prohibit the purchase of certain articles because they were not American, but British, was impossible, without implicitly recognizing the boycott of American goods as legitimate. A similar question in which Chinese feeling was excited the year before last was that of the Convention for the emigration of indentured labourers to South Africa, in accordance with the conditions laid down in the Transvaal Labour Ordinance. Writers in the English press in China strongly criticized these conditions, and they were backed up in their opinion by the arguments advanced in Parliament and in the English press, excerpts from which were translated into Chinese and forwarded to this country from Ceylon and Singapore. They found their way into the columns of the native press in North China, and created serious obstacles to the working of the Convention, besides exciting ill-will against Great Britain in the minds of ignorant people. The agitation has, however, died away, and at present no ill-feeling seems to exist on this subject, in consequence of the favourable reports spread by returned labourers, who brought with them considerable sums of money. I mention this matter to show how an anti-foreign feeling may result from a crusade carried on by well-meaning persons in foreign countries who regard it as their duty to advocate what seem to them to be the interests of the Chinese people. Since 1900 the native newspaper press has developed to a very remarkable extent, and as there is at present no press law to control or restrict newspaper utterances, these are often of a most intemperate character. Not only foreign nations, but high Chinese officials, are attacked with violence, and a case occurred not long ago at Hankow, where a newspaper enjoying foreign protection (as is the case with many of these sheets) openly applauded the attempt made at the Peking Railway terminus to destroy the Government Reform Commission at the moment of starting on its foreign tour by means of a bomb. In 1903 a prosecution was instituted at Shanghae against certain Chinese students for publishing seditious libels directed against the Imperial Family, the result of which was the condemnation of some of the accused to various terms of imprisonment. Such acts of repression are, however, exceedingly few, in comparison with the number of actionable publications. The students in question had passed some time in Japan. At the present moment there are believed to be some 8,000 or 9,000 young Chinese residing in that country, some no doubt pursuing their studies industriously, but many of them, it is to be suspected, devoting their attention rather to political questions and acquiring ideas which, for the present at least, cannot be put in practice in China. They occupy themselves with projects of political reform, and, strange to say, from being submissive members of a society in which political freedom is scarcely known, develop into little better than anarchists. Such is the effect of putting the new wine of Western ideas into the old bottles which are only fitted to hold the social doctrines of Confucius and Mencius. They also have had before their eyes the object-lesson of an Asiatic nation which has kept the construction of its railways and the working of its mines in its own hands, has been able to recover jurisdiction over the foreigners who dwell within its borders, and has risen to a height of military and naval power which is without a parallel in this part of the world. They see the fruits, but pay no heed to the long course of effort and study which have produced them, and fancy that in order to secure the same for China all that is necessary is to desire them ardently. Those who remain behind in Japan send telegrams to their Government urging them to withstand the foreigner, while those who return home ally themselves with the anti-dynastic agitators who are always more or less active in China. It is such as these whom the Central Government fears, but, through the strong personality of the present Viceroy of Chibli, is able to dominate. In the provinces, however, the local authorities seem quite unable to restrain them, and it is to the agitation of the so-called "recovery of China's rights" that the unreasoning provincial opposition to foreign railway and mining enterprise is to be ascribed. I term it "unreasoning" because it not only protests against any further concessions being granted, but seeks to set up an a priori right to cancel the engagements already entered into by the Chinese Government, or with its official sanction, on the mere ground that the particular province does not wish them to be carried out. 5 In spite of all this, I am reluctant to believe that this feeling is likely to develop into a widespread and active hostility against foreigners as such. The Central Government and the provincial authorities must, in my opinion, be acquitted of any desire to provoke hostilities with foreign Powers, and it is evident that they are ready to do what they can to avoid a conflict. Perhaps the Viceroy of Canton ought to be excepted from this favourable judgment. He is a headstrong personality, and we have had a good deal of trouble with him of late. But his high-handed treatment of leading members of the Chinese community has made him equally unpopular with his own countrymen. Of the other high provincial authorities the worst that can be said is that they are time-servers, lack moral courage, and, in the presence of a body of rioters, seem to lose their nerve. The murder of American missionaries at Lien Chou in October last, the destruction of Spanish Catholic and English Presbyterian chapels in South Fukien early in February, the recent massacre of French and English missionaries at Nanchang, and the Shanghae riot of December last must be regarded as sporadic outbreaks owing their origin to local causes. There is no sign of any general conspiracy against foreign missions. Nevertheless, it is incumbent on the members of all missionary bodies to act prudently, to avoid all occasion of dispute with local authorities or "gentry," and above all to refrain from intervention on behalf of their converts, for, as I had occasion to observe in a recent telegram, China is full of combustible material, and the indiscreet action of a missionary, merchant, or foreign official may at any moment lead to a local tumult. The question seems to be: Is the present obstructive attitude of the Chinese authorities towards European enterprise and the hostility of the Chinese people, indicated in the boycott of American goods, likely to develop into a general movement of active hostility against foreigners as such? I think the reply must be that this will depend on a combination of various factors, and that it is proverbially dangerous to predict the future. As far, however, as the attitude of foreign Powers towards China is concerned, there seems at present to be no ground for apprehending any attacks upon her integrity and independence such as would unite the Court and the country in one wild effort to get rid of the foreigner. The situation therefore differs very materially from what existed early in 1900. As far as the Powers are concerned, what is required is that they should exercise proper restraint over their own people, whether missionaries, merchants, travellers, or officials, and ensure that the Chinese people are always and in all matters treated with strict fairness and justice, while at the same time they maintain their Treaty rights and take due precautions for the protection of the foreign communities at the open ports. There may be perhaps some risk of the active members of the anti-Manchu party conceiving the idea of raising an anti-foreign cry in order to gain adherents, but such a cry must remain without effect as long as the Powers show their ability to protect the foreign communities by maintaining an adequate force of appropriate ships on the station; and in spite of the fact that the Manchus number only some 5,000,000 out of a total population that is probably not over-estimated at 300,000,000, I see no reason to believe in the success of a movement directed towards the overthrow of the present dynasty. What is necessary is vigilance on all sides, on the part of the Central Government and on that of the Powers; prudence and patience on the part of the general foreign community; self-restraint on that of the foreign press. I have, &c. 0 (Signed) ERNEST SATOW. 304
Baseline (Original)
4 registered in Great Britain. My position, when appealed to, was a delicate one. If, at the instance of British subjects, I had protested to the Chinese Government and the provincial authorities against the boycotting of goods in which British subjects were interested, the result would probably have been the extension of the boycott to British also. Even to interfere on behalf of the cigarettes of purely British firms did not seem a politic step, for to say to the Chinese agitators that they must not prohibit the purchase of certain articles because they were not American, but British, was impossible, without implicity recognizing the boycott of American goods as legitimate. A similar question in which Chinese feeling was excited the year before last was that of the Convention for the emigration of indentured labourers to South Africa, in accordance with the conditions laid down in the Transvaal Labour Ordinance. Writers in the English press in China strongly criticized these conditions, and they were backed up in their opinion by the arguments advanced in Parliament and in the English press, excerpts from which were translated into Chinese and forwarded to this country from Ceylon and Singapore. They found their way into the columns of the native press in North China, and created serious obstacles to the working of the Convention, besides exciting ill.will against Great Britain in the minds of ignorant people. The agitation has, however, died away, and at present no ill-feeling seems to exist on this subject, in consequence of the favourable reports spread by returned labourers, who brought with them considerable sums of money. I mention this matter to show how an anti-foreiga feeling may result from a crusade carried on by well-meaning persons in foreign countries who regard it as their duty to advocate what seem to them to be the interests of the Chinese people. Since 1900 the native newspaper press has developed to a very remarkable extent, and as there is at present no press law to control or restrict newspaper utterances, these are often of a most intemperate character. Not only foreign nations, but high Chinese officials, are attacked with violence, and a case occurred not long ago at Hankow, where a newspaper enjoying foreign protection (as is the case with many of these sheets) openly applanded the attempt made at the Peking Railway terminus to destroy the Government Reform Commission at the moment of starting on its foreign tour by means of a bomb. In 1903 a prosecution was instituted at Shanghae against certain Chinese students for publishing seditious libels directed against the Imperial Family, the result of which was the condemnation of some of the accused to various terms of imprisonment. Such acts of repression are, however, exceedingly few, in comparison with the number of actionable publications. The students in question had passed some time in Japan. At the present moment there are believed to be some 8,000 or 9,000 young Chinese residing in that country, some no doubt pursuing their studies industriously, but many of them, it is to be suspected, devoting their attention rather to political questions and acquiring ideas which, for the present at least, cannot be put in practice in China. They occupy then- selves with projects of political reform, and, strange to say, from being submissive members of a society in which political freedom is scarcely known, develop into little better than anarchists. Such is the effect of putting the new wine of Western ideas into the old bottles which are only fitted to hold the social doctrines of Confucius and Mencius. They also have had before their eyes the object-lesson of an Asiatic nation which has kept the construction of its railways and the working of its mines in its own hands, has been able to recover jurisdiction over the foreigners who dwell within its borders, and has risen to a height of military and naval power which is without a parallel in this part of the world. They see the fruits, but pay no heed to the long course of effort and study which have produced them, and fancy that in order to secure the same for China all that is necessary is to desire them ardently. Those who remain behind it Japan send telegrams to their Government urging them to withstand the foreigner, while those who return home ally themselves with the anti-dynastic agitators who are always more or less active in China. It is such as these whom the Central Government fears, but, through the strong personality of the present Viceroy of Chibli, is able to dominate. In the provinces, however, the local authorities seem quite unable to restram them, and it is to the agitation of the so-called "recovery of China's rights" that the unreasoning provincial opposition to foreign railway and mining enterprise is to be ascribed. I term it "unreasoning" because it not only protests against any farther con cessions being granted, but seeks to set up an à priori right to cancel the engagements already entered into by the Chinese Government, or with its official sanction, mere ground that the particular province does not wish them to be carried out. on the 5 In spite of all this, I am reluctant to believe that this feeling is likely to develop into a widespread and active hostility against foreigners as such. The Central Govern- ment and the provincial authorities, must, in my opinion, be acquitted of any desire to provoke hostilities with foreign Powers, and it is evident that they are ready to do what they can to avoid a conflict. Perhaps the Viceroy of Canton ought to be excepted from this favourable judgment. He is a headstrong personality, and we have had a good deal of trouble with him of late. But his high-handed treatment of leading members of the Chinese community has made him equally unpopular with his own countrymen. the other high provincial authorities the worst that can be said is that they are time- servers, lack moral courage, and, in the presence of a body of rioters, seem to lose their nerve. Of The murder of American missionaries at Lien Chou in October last, the destruction of Spanish Catholic and English Presbyterian chapels in South Fukien carly in February, the recent massacre of French and English missionaries at Nanchang, and the Shanghae riot of December last must be regarded as sporadic outbreaks owing their origin to local causes. There is no sign of any general conspiracy against foreign missions. Nevertheless, it is incumbent on the members of all missionary bodies to act prudently, to avoid all occasion of dispute with local authorities or "gentry," and above all to refrain from intervention on behalf of their converts, for, as I had occasion to observe in recent telegram, China is full of combustible material, and the indiscrect action of a missionary, merchant, or foreign official may at any moment lead to a local tumult. The question seems to be: Is the present obstructive attitude of the Chinese authorities towards European enterprise and the hostility of the Chinese people, indicated in the boycott of American goods, likely to develop into a general movement of active hostility against foreigners as such? I think the reply must be that this will depend on a combination of various factors, and that it is proverbially dangerous to predict the future. As far, however, as the attitude of foreign Powers towards China is concerned, there seems at present to be no ground for apprehending any attacks upon her integrity and independence such as would unite the Court and the country in one wild effort to get rid of the foreigner. The situation therefore differs very materially from what existed early in 1900. As far as the Powers are concerned, what is required is that they should exercise proper restraint over their own people, whether missionaries, merchants, travellers, or officials, and ensure that the Chinese people are always and in all matters treated with strict fairness and justice, while at the same time they maintain their Treaty rights and take due precau- tions for the protection of the foreign communities at the open ports. There may be perhaps some risk of the active members of the anti-Manchu party conceiving the idea of raising an anti-foreign cry in order to gain adherents, but such a cry must remain without effect as long as the Powers show their ability to protect the foreign communities by maintaining an adequate force of appropriate ships on the station; and in spite of the fact that the Manchus number only some 5,000,000 out of a total population that is probably not over-estimated at 300,000,000, I see no reason to believe in the success of a movement directed towards the overthrow of the present dynasty. What is necessary is vigilance on all sides, on the part of the Central Government and on that of the Powers; prudence and patience on the part of the general foreign community; self-restraint on that of the foreign press. I have, &c. 0 (Signed) ERNEST SATOW. 304
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4

registered in Great Britain. My position, when appealed to, was a delicate one. If, at the instance of British subjects, I had protested to the Chinese Government and the provincial authorities against the boycotting of goods in which British subjects were interested, the result would probably have been the extension of the boycott to British also. Even to interfere on behalf of the cigarettes of purely British firms did not seem a politic step, for to say to the Chinese agitators that they must not prohibit the purchase of certain articles because they were not American, but British, was impossible, without implicity recognizing the boycott of American goods as legitimate.

A similar question in which Chinese feeling was excited the year before last was that of the Convention for the emigration of indentured labourers to South Africa, in accordance with the conditions laid down in the Transvaal Labour Ordinance.

Writers

in the English press in China strongly criticized these conditions, and they were backed up in their opinion by the arguments advanced in Parliament and in the English press, excerpts from which were translated into Chinese and forwarded to this country from Ceylon and Singapore. They found their way into the columns of the native press in North China, and created serious obstacles to the working of the Convention, besides exciting ill.will against Great Britain in the minds of ignorant people. The agitation has, however, died away, and at present no ill-feeling seems to exist on this subject, in consequence of the favourable reports spread by returned labourers, who brought with them considerable sums of money. I mention this matter to show how an anti-foreiga feeling may result from a crusade carried on by well-meaning persons in foreign countries who regard it as their duty to advocate what seem to them to be the interests of the Chinese people.

Since 1900 the native newspaper press has developed to a very remarkable extent, and as there is at present no press law to control or restrict newspaper utterances, these are often of a most intemperate character. Not only foreign nations, but high Chinese officials, are attacked with violence, and a case occurred not long ago at Hankow, where a newspaper enjoying foreign protection (as is the case with many of these sheets) openly applanded the attempt made at the Peking Railway terminus to destroy the Government Reform Commission at the moment of starting on its foreign tour by means of a bomb.

In 1903 a prosecution was instituted at Shanghae against certain Chinese students for publishing seditious libels directed against the Imperial Family, the result of which was the condemnation of some of the accused to various terms of imprisonment. Such acts of repression are, however, exceedingly few, in comparison with the number of actionable publications.

The students in question had passed some time in Japan. At the present moment there are believed to be some 8,000 or 9,000 young Chinese residing in that country, some no doubt pursuing their studies industriously, but many of them, it is to be suspected, devoting their attention rather to political questions and acquiring ideas which, for the present at least, cannot be put in practice in China. They occupy then- selves with projects of political reform, and, strange to say, from being submissive members of a society in which political freedom is scarcely known, develop into little better than anarchists. Such is the effect of putting the new wine of Western ideas into the old bottles which are only fitted to hold the social doctrines of Confucius and Mencius.

They also have had before their eyes the object-lesson of an Asiatic nation which has kept the construction of its railways and the working of its mines in its own hands, has been able to recover jurisdiction over the foreigners who dwell within its borders, and has risen to a height of military and naval power which is without a parallel in this part of the world. They see the fruits, but pay no heed to the long course of effort and study which have produced them, and fancy that in order to secure the same for China all that is necessary is to desire them ardently. Those who remain behind it Japan send telegrams to their Government urging them to withstand the foreigner, while those who return home ally themselves with the anti-dynastic agitators who are always more or less active in China. It is such as these whom the Central Government fears, but, through the strong personality of the present Viceroy of Chibli, is able to dominate. In the provinces, however, the local authorities seem quite unable to restram them, and it is to the agitation of the so-called "recovery of China's rights" that the unreasoning provincial opposition to foreign railway and mining enterprise is to be ascribed. I term it "unreasoning" because it not only protests against any farther con cessions being granted, but seeks to set up an à priori right to cancel the engagements already entered into by the Chinese Government, or with its official sanction, mere ground that the particular province does not wish them to be carried out.

on the

5

In spite of all this, I am reluctant to believe that this feeling is likely to develop into a widespread and active hostility against foreigners as such. The Central Govern- ment and the provincial authorities, must, in my opinion, be acquitted of any desire to provoke hostilities with foreign Powers, and it is evident that they are ready to do what they can to avoid a conflict. Perhaps the Viceroy of Canton ought to be excepted from this favourable judgment. He is a headstrong personality, and we have had a good deal of trouble with him of late. But his high-handed treatment of leading members of the Chinese community has made him equally unpopular with his own countrymen. the other high provincial authorities the worst that can be said is that they are time- servers, lack moral courage, and, in the presence of a body of rioters, seem to lose their nerve.

Of

The murder of American missionaries at Lien Chou in October last, the destruction of Spanish Catholic and English Presbyterian chapels in South Fukien carly in February, the recent massacre of French and English missionaries at Nanchang, and the Shanghae riot of December last must be regarded as sporadic outbreaks owing their origin to local causes. There is no sign of any general conspiracy against foreign missions. Nevertheless, it is incumbent on the members of all missionary bodies to act prudently, to avoid all occasion of dispute with local authorities or "gentry," and above all to refrain from intervention on behalf of their converts, for, as I had occasion to observe in recent telegram, China is full of combustible material, and the indiscrect action of a missionary, merchant, or foreign official may at any moment lead to a local tumult.

The question seems to be: Is the present obstructive attitude of the Chinese authorities towards European enterprise and the hostility of the Chinese people, indicated in the boycott of American goods, likely to develop into a general movement of active hostility against foreigners as such?

I think the reply must be that this will depend on a combination of various factors, and that it is proverbially dangerous to predict the future. As far, however, as the attitude of foreign Powers towards China is concerned, there seems at present to be no ground for apprehending any attacks upon her integrity and independence such as would unite the Court and the country in one wild effort to get rid of the foreigner. The situation therefore differs very materially from what existed early in 1900.

As far as the Powers are concerned, what is required is that they should exercise proper restraint over their own people, whether missionaries, merchants, travellers, or officials, and ensure that the Chinese people are always and in all matters treated with strict fairness and justice, while at the same time they maintain their Treaty rights and take due precau- tions for the protection of the foreign communities at the open ports. There may be perhaps some risk of the active members of the anti-Manchu party conceiving the idea of raising an anti-foreign cry in order to gain adherents, but such a cry must remain without effect as long as the Powers show their ability to protect the foreign communities by maintaining an adequate force of appropriate ships on the station; and in spite of the fact that the Manchus number only some 5,000,000 out of a total population that is probably not over-estimated at 300,000,000, I see no reason to believe in the success of a movement directed towards the overthrow of the present dynasty.

What is necessary is vigilance on all sides, on the part of the Central Government and on that of the Powers; prudence and patience on the part of the general foreign community; self-restraint on that of the foreign press.

I have, &c.

0

(Signed)

ERNEST SATOW.

304

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